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Translated by David Buchanan.

George Friedman: U.S. Can Withstand Trade War More Than China Can

Abstract Having long remained a passive presence within multilateral economic organisations, China recently changed its stance when the United States was faced with a major financial crisis. Full text Send by e-mail.

China’s Challenge to a US-Led World Order

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Business World News. Ashok Leyland. Market Watch. Pinterest Reddit. Flaring tensions between Washington and Beijing are raising the prospect of new global diplomatic and economic fault lines, with consequences that analysts say could pose unfamiliar challenges to world leaders. President Donald Trump 's combative stance, highlighted by the new round of import tariffs imposed this week, has upended decades of cautious statecraft in the West aimed at coaxing China to join the global order. The fallout could prove long-lasting, requiring countries in Europe, Asia and Africa to rethink how they engage with two diametrically opposed superpowers.

And is when its trade surpluses exploded and Beijing's currency reserves got so huge. And even if their trade war doesn't escalate further, there are plenty of other areas for confrontation, such as China's growing technological might, in particular its prowess with ultrafast 5G cellular networks.

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Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative of infrastructure and trade development across Asia and Africa and even into Europe will also keep tensions simmering. The concept refers to a rising power inspiring fear in an established power that leads to outright war.

Nonetheless, the antagonism will force other nations to move carefully on a more delicate geopolitical chessboard. Di Meglio added that European firms hoping to win Chinese contracts might be told they have to replace sensitive technologies or components that might later be used by Americans.

In Central Europe? To get to grips with the seismic shifts underway, consider these five facts. First, China is in the process of surpassing the US economically.

By one measure , 35 per cent of world growth from to will come from China, 18 per cent from the US, 9 percent from India, and 8 per cent from Europe. Is the west even remotely prepared for this kind of world? Second, China is leading the largest urbanization and infrastructure development scheme on earth.

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  • While details are hazy, OBOR is being financed by Chinese state banks, with a modest strategic contribution by a new Chinese-backed AsianInfrastructure Investment Bank in partnership with other institutions Third, China is set to become a global green powerhouse. China signalled its intention to take the lead on climate change reduction after signing the Paris Climate Agreement.

    By , most new cars in China will be fully electric vehicles. China is aggressively cutting coal usage.

    China, the United States and Global Order | Chatham House

    Already, over 60 per cent of high speed rail in the world is in China 10 times the length in Japan, for example. China also recently committed to achieving blue skies in all of its major cities within three years. The changes are already being felt: Beijing air is 30 per cent cleaner this winter than last winter. Fourth, China is also setting the global pace on a digital economy, including cashless payments.

    In major cities, up to 90 per cent of all commercial and retail transactions in convenience stores and cafes are occurring through Alipay and Wechat.

    E-commerce delivery in large Chinese cities through Alibaba is the currently the fastest in the world. Finally, Chinese universities are also vaulting to the top of the international rankings. Two schools - Peking University and Tsinghua University - just leapfrogged from well below the top to the top 30 within five years. There are anther 40 universities that are not far behind and set to enter the elite universities in the coming years.

    While Chinese are still seeking out educations in elite schools in North America and Western Europe, soon they won't have to. All the while, the west seems to be asleep at the wheel. There is a certain irony in our current predicament.

    Part 1: International Relations/Foreign Policy

    On the one hand, the world is experienced unparalleled levels of prosperity and connectivity, due in no small part to the US-backed global liberal order. Yet these advances are associated with ever greater complexity and systemic risks, increasing the liberal order's vulnerability to collapse.

    The world's global and national institutions are increasingly incapable of managing stresses to the system. Democracies, it turns out, lack the incentive systems to address higher-order and longer-term imperatives.